Week 1 college football preview: Don’t write off Florida State

Week Zero didn’t wreck Florida State’s playoff hopes. It did expose the Seminoles for not being as good as they were last year.

Coach Mike Norvell’s team left Ireland empty-handed after a 24-21 loss Saturday to Georgia Tech, and it now has as many defeats as it did last year. And even that was a 63-3 Orange Bowl loss to Georgia that no one in the program (understandably) seemed to have much interest in.

There was plenty of tut-tutting about Florida State trying to sue its way out of a conference it might struggle to win this year, which was to be expected. Yet while potshots at some unnecessarily self-important movers and shakers in Tallahassee always have a place in the discourse, mocking a team that had won its past 12 games against league foes seemed a bit unnecessary.

So here are a few bits of reality to keep in mind for the Seminoles, with an eye firmly on the era of a 12-team playoff.

- The five highest-ranked conference champions make the playoff this year. Would anyone be surprised if Florida State went 7-1 or 6-2 in conference play, advanced to the ACC title game and won it? Probably not. The expanded 12-team playoff gives a mulligan to just about everyone. The Seminoles simply took advantage of it first.

- It’s hard to judge reconfigured teams in late August. Or in early September, for that matter. A variation of that argument has often been a popular one (“They’re not the same team they were on Labor Day”), and it’s going to be easier than ever to take it into account.

- A response is probably coming. Maybe Florida State’s defensive front won’t be as stout as expected (remember, the Seminoles smothered more passing attacks last year than running games), but getting bulldozed by Georgia Tech and having a transatlantic flight to think about it couldn’t have sat well.

Florida State hosts Boston College on Monday night to conclude Week 1, and even if it wins that game, it won’t belong in the top 10 when next week’s rankings come out. But a convincing victory would cement the thought the Seminoles aren’t a lost cause, for playoff or ACC title purposes, even if the chase to get to 13-0 again was over almost before it began.

Easing into the schedule … or not

It really isn’t anyone’s imagination. There really are a lot of Football Bowl Subdivision-vs.-Football Championship Subdivision matchups to open the season.

A whopping 59 of them, according to the Associated Press’s Ralph D. Russo, an unusually high number even by the usual Week 1 standards.

Of course, this doesn’t mean all of those games will be uncompetitive. Just last week, FCS power Montana State went to New Mexico and took both a paycheck and a victory from the Lobos.

On paper, some of the best upset possibilities include Richmond visiting Virginia, Central Arkansas heading to Arkansas State, Southern Illinois traveling to Brigham Young, and defending FCS champion South Dakota State playing at Oklahoma State.

There’s also the possibility of North Dakota State, which is 9-4 all-time against FBS foes, including wins in six of its past seven when leveling up. The Bison, No. 2 in the FCS preseason rankings, visit Colorado on Thursday and have a chance to smother any kind of over-the-top hype surrounding the Buffaloes in the season’s cradle.

Five with the most at stake: A look at teams with the chance to prove plenty in Week 1

- Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are the guests in College Station for the beginning of the Mike Elko era at Texas A&M, and it’s the first of just three games in an opponent’s primary stadium this season. (Notre Dame faces Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and Army at Yankee Stadium in New York as well). The schedule is manageable enough to find a way to 10-2 and a playoff berth, though this week could be a bit of a hornet’s nest. After all, the Irish are one of two preseason top-10 teams opening with a true road game, along with …

- Penn State. The Nittany Lions make a return trip to Morgantown after dispatching West Virginia, 38-15, to open last season - a victory that, in retrospect, might have been their most impressive accomplishment. Penn State isn’t breaking in a new quarterback this time, just trying to scale its most notable obstacle before an Oct. 12 trip to Southern California.

- Clemson. The Tigers open with a neutral-field game against Georgia for the second time in four seasons. Back in 2021, Clemson dropped a 10-3 decision that could easily have been chalked up in real time as a hard-nosed loss to an excellent defensive team filled with pro prospects but in fact was the canary in the coal mine for a program that has slipped on offense. The Tigers dropped their opener at Duke last year, 28-7, and another inert debut may get Tyler from Spartanburg to fire up the phone again.

- Miami and Florida. The past three seasons of Gators football look like a hard-luck loss at the U.S. Open: 6-7, 6-7, 5-7. Billy Napier has presided over two of them, and Florida hasn’t exactly given a long leash to its coaches who have struggled in the past 20 years. Meanwhile, Miami heads to the Swamp in its usual Week 1 disposition, accompanied by hype without the benefit of on-field accomplishment. Mario Cristobal’s program was an apparent transfer portal winner, and this would be a fine time to justify the offseason accolades.

- LSU. In the four-team playoff era, the goal for a power conference school was to avoid more than one loss. Here’s guessing getting to double-digit victories - especially in the SEC - will be a better barometer with 12 playoff berths to be had. With the Tigers’ toughest league opponents on paper (Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma) all visiting Death Valley, beating Southern California in Las Vegas on Sunday would both start the race to 10-2 (or better) in fine fashion and give them some away-from-home credibility.

Heisman watch: A weekly look at the race for college football’s favorite stiff-arming statue, with a spotlight on the stars of Week Zero.

- TE RJ Maryland, Southern Methodist. The junior caught eight of the 10 passes thrown his way, rolling up 162 yards in a 29-24 comeback victory at Nevada. Maryland’s biggest play was a 34-yard touchdown reception with 1:18 remaining to give the Mustangs the lead for the first time.

- RB Adam Jones, Montana State. Jones authored one of the plays of Week Zero, scampering 93 yards for a touchdown as part of the Bobcats’ fourth-quarter rally from down 17 points in a 35-31 victory at New Mexico. Jones finished with 167 yards on 17 carries.

- QB Preston Stone, Southern Methodist. It wasn’t the smoothest opener for a guy who is projected to be one of the top quarterbacks in the ACC, but he threw for 254 yards and a touchdown as the Mustangs opened the season by scooting past Nevada on the road.

- RB Jamal Haynes, Georgia Tech. Let’s be candid: Last weekend’s ACC game in Ireland didn’t produce many statistical dynamos. But Haynes rushed for 75 yards and two touchdowns as Georgia Tech churned out 5.3 yards per carry against Florida State’s defense.

- PR Tylan Hines, Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors’ redshirt sophomore returned from an injury that cost him the final nine games of last season to pile up 99 all-purpose yards, including a 44-yard punt return for a touchdown in a 35-14 defeat of Delaware State.

- K Aidan Birr, Georgia Tech. Kickers are people, too, and Birr connected from 44 yards out as time expired to give the Yellow Jackets the season’s first win on the final play of the game, a 24-21 defeat of Florida State.